There are two related yet, interesting stories in the news today.
Apparently, there has been a surge in new voter registration. According to news reports, there have been 9 million newly registered voters who are overwhelmingly Democratic.
The other story is that Democratic strategists aren’t just predicting a win but, they are predicting a landslide victory.
As of this morning, the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report shows Barack Obama maintaining a 52% to 41% lead over John McCain. A margin of error in either direction would be covered if the election were to be held today.
Yet, we still have almost a month to go until the actual election. Is this Obama enthusiasm too much of a good thing- enough to make Obama followers complacent?
If voters have already made up their mind, will the current enthusiasm fade within this critical month? Will this make fewer voters turn out than expected?
One over-whelming item that Obama has on his side is the economy. As long as there are credit, banking, employement and housing problems, voters will be motivated to vote.
The feds have done everything in their power to attempt to turn things around- to the extent of a new-socialist philosophy on banking.
The various polls, CNN, Gallop etc., all have President Bush’s approval rating below 30%- an all time low.
Does McCain even stand a chance?
- According to what the pollsters say, McCain and co. have lost every debate with one last one still ahead of us. Gallop says Americans who watched last Tuesday night’s town hall debate say Barack Obama (56%) did a better job than John McCain (23%). About one in three viewers say their opinion of Obama is more favorable because of the debate, while one in three say their opinion of McCain is less favorable.
- There has been much talk in the media about the Republican ticket emphasis not on the economy but, rather on negative issues, such as ‘Obama and terrorists’.
- The use, or misuse. of the word “maverick ” to pretty much relabel a moderate Republican as an “outsider”. Can an ‘Outsider’ rely on fellow party members to help get things done in Washington?
- Gallup also says that 69 % of Americans believe the economy is the most important issue facing the nation. The second most cited issue, the war in Iraq, is named by only 11 percent of voters.
In November of 2004, 126 million people voted in the election — a record high for a presidential year according to the Census Bureau. 89% of registered actually voted in 2004, up from 86 percent in 2000.
Some things to consider;
- According to Gallop, only 9 percent of Americans are “satisfied” with the direction of the United States, the lowest level since the question was first asked by the Gallup Poll in the late 1970s.
- Nearly six in ten Americans believe that the United States could be on the verge of entering an economic spiral similar to the Great Depression, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll.
American’s don’t seem to hate John McCain. You don’t hear a multitude of jokes like you would if his last name were, say, Bush. They respect what McCain has done to get where he is today. However, as far as the Leader of the Free World goes, the latest polls, according to CBS, say that Obama has a 44% approval rating compared to 35% for McCain.
Bill Clinton’s 379 electoral votes to Bob Dole’s 159 electoral votes. The economy was a key factor in each of these elections.