1. The AAA Labor Day 2012 Travel Forecast combines information from several sources to provide a prospective
assessment of likely travel patterns for the upcoming holiday weekend. This report comprises two key components: the
actual travel forecast and the holiday traveler profile. The actual travel forecast is based on economic conditions while the
holiday traveler profile is developed employing survey data on travel behaviors.
the Labor Day holiday travel period is defined as round-trips that include travel of 50 miles
or more away from home during the period from Thursday, August 30 to Monday, September 3
AAA and IHS Global Insight expect that 33.0 million travelers will take
trips of at least 50 miles away from home, which represents a 2.9 percent increase over the 32.1 million travelers during the 2011 Labor Day holiday period.
Approximately 85 percent of travelers—or 28.2 million—will make their Labor Day holiday journey in an automobile. Automobile travel continues to be the most convenient mode of travel for manyAmericans. This represents a 3.1 percent increase over the 27.3 million travelers that took to roads and highways last year and a slight increase in travel share from last year.
The national average price of self-serve regular gasoline as of August 13
th is 10 cents higher than last year, a 2.6 percent increase compared to August 13th ,2011. Gas prices for all of August 2011 were less than a penny lower than the average through the 13 th of August this year.
Air travel is expected to make up 7.7 percent of total travel share, which is similar to the share from 2011. The 2.6 million
travelers expected to take to the air this holiday period is 3.7 percent more than in 2011, as air travel volumes seem to
have stabilized since the recession-driven declines in 2008 and 2009
Other modes of travel (trains, cruises, bus, multi-modal travel) will make up the remaining seven percent of total persontrips, down slightly from the 2011 share. The 2.3 million travelers expected to use this mode is 0.2% below the level of 2011. Travel via these modes seems to have stabilized a bit after three volatile years around the recession and
The East North Central region (ENC) is expected to experience a 2.7 percent increase in total person-trips during the
upcoming Labor Day holiday period. This forecast is slightly below the national holiday forecast of a 2.9 percent increase
in total person-trips
Labor Day travel originating from the East South Central (ESC) region is expected to improve by 2.7 percent relative to
Labor Day 2011, which is slightly below the national forecast of 2.9 percent.
For Labor Day 2012, travel originating from the Middle Atlantic (MATL) region is expected to improve by 2.3 percent
relative to Labor Day 2011. This is slightly below the national holiday forecast of a 2.9 percent increase in total persontrips.
Labor Day travel originating from the Mountain (MTN) region is expected to improve by 3.2 percent relative to the holiday
period in 2011, which is a slightly larger increase in travel than the forecast for the United States (2.9 percent)
During the upcoming Labor Day holiday, travel originating from the New England (NENG) region is anticipated to improve
by three percent relative to last year. The forecast is very close to the projected national growth rate of 2.9 percent.
The median Holiday Traveler Profile respondent expects to spend $749 this upcoming holiday period, which is slightly
above the expected median spending of $702 for survey respondents in 2011
This was probably conceived prior to Isaac